The situation in the region is uncertain amid tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, military operations, counterattacks and mediation efforts.
The US and Iran are accusing each other of violating the ceasefire agreement, but both sides are also giving signs of continuing backdoor diplomacy. The situation in the region is uncertain amid tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, military operations, counterattacks and mediation efforts. In such a situation, the question is what stage this conflict is at now, can negotiations resume or not and what could happen next? The memorandum of understanding signed between the US and Iran on June 17, known as the ‘Islamabad Memorandum’, was considered an important effort to reduce tensions in the region, however, after attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz, US airstrikes and Iranian counterattacks, the future of this agreement seems to be in danger. Although US President Donald Trump recently said at the NATO summit that the ceasefire agreement with Iran is ‘over’, US officials are still talking about continuing negotiations. On the other hand, Iran maintains that the US attacks have severely damaged trust.
Pakistan emerged as a key mediator earlier this year after hosting direct talks between top US and Iranian officials in Islamabad. Although the talks did not yield immediate success, they paved the way for continued diplomatic contacts, which resulted in an interim peace agreement last month, known as the ‘Islamabad Memorandum’.
What was the agreement between the US and Iran?
Under the memorandum of understanding signed on June 17, the two countries agreed to a 60-day ceasefire and a dialogue process.
Key points of the agreement include:
An end to military operations between Iran and the US
A reduction in tensions on all fronts, including Lebanon
Restoration of maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz
An easing of some economic sanctions on Iran
Iran’s reaffirmation of its commitment not to develop nuclear weapons
Within weeks of the agreement, both sides began accusing each other of violations. The US alleged that Iran's Revolutionary Guards targeted some commercial ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, after which Washington launched attacks on several targets in Iran.
On the other hand, Iran rejected the accusations of attacks on ships. Tehran said that the US attacks themselves were a clear violation of the agreement and that the US had failed to ensure the implementation of the provisions related not only to Iran but also to Lebanon. According to experts, the biggest center of the current crisis is the Strait of Hormuz, through which a large part of the world's oil trade passes. Iran's position is that ships should pass through the route approved by the Revolutionary Guards, while some international shipping companies are using the old sea routes of Oman and the US-backed. This disagreement has made the Strait of Hormuz the first major test of the memorandum of understanding signed between the US and Iran.
Lebanon is also among the points of contention. Although the agreement mentioned a ceasefire in Lebanon, Israel and Hezbollah are not parties to the agreement. Iran alleges that Israel has undermined the spirit of the agreement by continuing its operations in Lebanon, while the United States maintains that Israel was not a formal party to the memorandum of understanding. According to observers, this ambiguity has complicated the implementation of the provisions related to Lebanon. Meanwhile, despite the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, there have been reports of Israeli attacks in southern Lebanon. According to CNN, an attack was also carried out in the Al-Masha' area of the town of Al-Mansouri in the Tyre district. According to the Lebanese Ministry of Health, 4,321 people have been killed and 12,207 injured in Israeli operations since March 2. It was initially expected that the talks between the United States and Iran would resume after the funeral and burial ceremonies of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei are completed, but no new date has been officially announced after the recent attacks. Despite this, US officials say that diplomatic contacts between the two countries have not been completely severed and the negotiating teams are still in contact. According to the American broadcasting company ‘CNN’, US officials say that the ceasefire has been affected at least temporarily, but negotiations are continuing at a technical level and Washington is still determined to reach a solution. On the other hand, Iran’s chief negotiator Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf warned that if the US attacks again, it will be responded to and Tehran is ready for any kind of defense. At the same time, a senior US official told ‘CNN’ that if Iran does not allow free passage of tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, the two sides will never be able to reach the stage of final negotiations on nuclear weapons. According to US media reports, the next round of negotiations between the US and Iran is expected next week and this important meeting may possibly take place in Switzerland. Meanwhile, the series of attacks between the two countries has also stopped, while countries playing a mediating role in the region and internationally are active in reducing tensions and getting the negotiations back on track.
According to the American news website Axios, senior officials from Pakistan, Qatar, Egypt and Saudi Arabia have contacted US and Iranian officials in recent days to prevent the situation from worsening and to set a new date for talks between technical teams from the two countries. According to the British broadcaster Reuters, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi arrived in Oman on Saturday to discuss arrangements for the safe passage of ships in the Strait of Hormuz. According to Reuters, the US wants assurances from Iran that all shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz will remain open, that free and safe movement of ships will be ensured and that no fees will be imposed on this passage. According to the report, Qatar and Pakistan, among other mediators, are trying to restore contacts between Iran and the US, while Oman is also active in reducing tensions. Although US President Donald Trump said that the ceasefire is no longer effective, he also said that the US has agreed to continue talks with Iran.
The agreement's controversial clauses
Experts say that a major reason for the current crisis is the ambiguity in some clauses of the memorandum of understanding. In particular, different interpretations are being made of points related to maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, future security arrangements and Lebanon. Washington's position is that Iran has not fulfilled its obligations regarding the safe passage of ships, while Tehran says that the US attacks and the ongoing Israeli operations in Lebanon have undermined the spirit of the agreement. According to observers, if negotiations resume, clarifying these points will be a top priority.
What are the possible effects on the global economy and the region?
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's most important shipping lanes, and a large amount of oil and gas passes through it on a global scale. That is why any kind of tension in this region can have immediate effects on energy prices, maritime trade and global markets. Due to the recent tension, fluctuations in global oil prices have been observed, while some shipping companies have also taken additional protective measures. Experts say that if the situation worsens further, its effects can be felt from the Gulf countries to Europe, Asia and the global economy. At the regional level, this crisis is also of exceptional importance for the Gulf countries, Iraq, Lebanon and other neighboring states. This is why several countries, including Pakistan, Qatar, Oman, Saudi Arabia and Egypt, are trying to reduce tensions and reactivate the negotiation process through diplomatic contacts.
What could happen next?
Currently, three possibilities are most widely discussed:
Negotiations resume and a new understanding is reached on the controversial clauses.
Limited military pressure and diplomatic efforts continue simultaneously.
Tensions escalate further and the ceasefire or reconciliation process completely fails.
At the moment, both the US and Iran are making tough statements, but backdoor diplomacy and mediation efforts are also ongoing. That is why, according to observers, the current crisis has not yet entered a decisive phase. The coming days will determine whether the parties return to the negotiating table or the region once again moves towards a wider conflict.
