Will the world change after three days?

Written by: Wajahat Masood

     By the time this column reaches your hands, the US election will be just two days away. On Tuesday, November 5, approximately 18 million citizens out of 35 million Americans will vote to choose their president from the Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and the Republican candidate Donald Trump for the next four years. According to opinion polls, this is the tightest election in America since the Second World War as the difference between the two candidates is about one percentage point. Kamala Harris has a slight lead, but this lead is not a guarantee of success in the American style of election, because the election of the president is not based on the counting of individual votes, but on the basis of population, each state is assigned a certain number of electoral votes. Even if a candidate wins the overall vote, he can get the required 270 electoral votes if he wins in just a few states. In 2016, Hillary Clinton was defeated in the Electoral College despite getting almost three million more votes than Donald Trump. This year is being declared as the biggest election year in known human history because this year three billion and seventy million voters around the world have to choose their government in 72 countries. Among them, Narendra Modi succeeded in forming a government in India, a country of one and a half billion people, but contrary to expectations, his party could not get a simple majority. The elections in the United States, the country with the world's largest economy and the most powerful military force with an economic volume of 28 trillion dollars, are considered to be the most important in changing the future of the world. America can change the map of the world due to its influence on international relations and the most important financial institutions.

      Special attention is being paid to the recent US election because American politics has never suffered from such extreme polarization since the Second World War. Republican candidate Donald Trump is considered a metaphor for far-right populist politics. He refused to accept the result of the 2020 elections and attacked the US Congress through his supporters. They openly want to implement conservative policies in their country. In a world where the governments of Vladimir Putin in Russia, Narendra Modi in India and Xi Jinping in China are in place, Donald Trump's victory in America could have far-reaching effects on history. The average American voter is more interested in issues like taxes, inflation, immigration and abortion, but the outside world has few concerns about other aspects of Trump's policies. A fundamental question in America since Woodrow Wilson's presidency has been whether America should play its role on the world stage or isolate itself from the world and focus on domestic affairs. The roots of this political disagreement go back to the policy of James Monroe, the fifth president of the United States in 1823, that the intervention of any foreign power against the allied countries of the United States will be considered directly against American interests. In the current situation, Donald Trump believes in a complete disengagement from NATO or a very weak relationship if he wins the election. For example, regarding Russia's aggression against Ukraine from February 2022, Donald Trump wants Ukraine to accept Russian demands.

      Donald Trump wants to impose a 20% tariff on all foreign imports to boost the US economy. They plan to impose tariffs of up to 200 percent on Chinese imports. The current average rate of tariff on Pakistan's total exports of three billion dollars to the US is 2 percent. It should be noted that America is the only trade partner of Pakistan in which Pakistan has a trade advantage. Our compatriots are unhappy with Kamala Harris in love with Palestine, but they forget that Donald Trump recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and moved the US embassy there. If Biden did not call the former Pakistani Prime Minister, then Trump also made insulting tweets against Pakistan in January 2018. In addition, in August 2019, the Indian government took action in Kashmir. Donald Trump wants to withdraw from the Paris Agreement on climate change, which will exacerbate the global climate crisis. At present, many new global forces are emerging simultaneously in the world. Pakistan could not get BRICS membership. Pakistan is in deep trouble on the foreign front and fingers are being raised on the diplomatic ability of our Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar. In this background, Donald Trump is not ready to guarantee the defense of Taiwan. As if this 13,000 square mile island of prosperity with a population of two million and a per capita income of thirty two thousand dollars should be left at the mercy of China.

       A noteworthy point is that Donald Trump wants to change the administrative structure of the United States by making about fifty thousand federal officials directly subordinate to the president instead of the constitution. The election of the United States will not only affect the internal unity and economy of this country, the outcome of the contest between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump will affect the prospects of democracy around the world. At the heart of the recent election is the credibility of American democracy. Trump supporters have been preparing to riot over his possible defeat. In such a situation, the hearts of a handful of Pakistani progressives are with Donald Trump, considering Kamala Harris as a symbol of bourgeois democracy. Our religious people are dreaming of the failure of enlightened democracy in the success of Donald Trump and the desperate revolutionaries of Tehreek-e-Insaaf have pinned their hopes on the possible success of Trump to release Imran Khan. It has fallen on which tomorrow electricity why should it be my aashian.

American presidential elections, the competition will be tough. But...?

 

          The presidential elections in the United States will be held on November 5, but the preparations are already in full swing. Donald Trump will run for the Republican Party, and Kamala Harris will run for the Democratic Party. At this time, the eyes of the whole world are focused on the US elections, because the US is a global power and its decisions affect the whole world.

        Kamala Harris' parents were refugees. His mother was an endocrinologist born in India in 1959 and his father is an economist born in Jamaica. Kamala's political career began in the state of California. She began her career in the Alameda County District Attorney's office and rose to San Francisco District Attorney, the highest prosecutor position there. She then won elections in California by taking a right-wing stance on criminal justice issues while also appealing to Democrats, leading to the state's attorney general election. As a senator, Kamala excelled in debates. is, where his advocacy skills are clearly visible.

         The whole world is familiar with Donald Trump, because he has been the president of the United States. His grandfather came as a refugee from Germany, while his mother came from Scotland. Donald Trump's father was a successful New York businessman and Trump himself is a businessman and billionaire.

       There are some states in the US where electoral competition is very tight and these states are given special attention, as they play a major role in electing the president. Such states are called "swing states". Seven of those states – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin – are said to hold the key to the White House this time around. According to recent polls in American swing states, Kamala is ahead of Trump. And according to the Reuters/Ipsos poll, Kamala is also ahead of Trump. According to the poll, Kamala leads Trump by several points among women voters and Hispanic voters, while Trump leads among white voters and men. Trump is very popular and has the support of white people.

       About 73% of Democratic registered voters, on the other hand, said they were more excited about voting in November after Kamala joined the race. In a similar March poll, 60% of respondents planned to vote for Biden, doing so primarily to stop Trump, while 52% of Kamala Harris voters in an August poll said they would support her as a candidate rather than oppose Trump. were voting for

       Biden ended his campaign on July 21 when his fellow Democrats forced him to withdraw from the re-election campaign after a failed debate with Trump. Democrats feared that Biden would not be able to effectively compete with Trump, so they put Kamala in front of Trump. Kamala's arrival has made the election race tough again, as she is more popular than Biden among her voters and is also more dynamic and energetic than her opponent in terms of age. However, Biden's presidency has been associated with problems such as high inflation, large industrial policy bills, and international turmoil, and Republicans will try to blame these problems on Kamala in order to boost their campaign's success. can be weakened.

       But Trump, the Republican nominee for president in the 2024 presidential election, also faces a number of charges at the state and federal level. His legal team is trying to delay the various lawsuits as much as possible, hoping to avoid or possibly delay jail time if he ends up back in the White House.

       When Trump won the Republican presidential nomination in March, he was facing serious charges in four separate cases. A federal case against him, based on efforts to overturn the 2020 US presidential election and his alleged role in the January 6 attack on Capitol Hill, is still pending. Trump was similarly convicted in a case of falsifying business records, but that decision is now on hold because of a Supreme Court ruling on presidential immunity.

      Trump was also charged with mishandling classified documents and obstruction of justice, but a judge dismissed the case on July 15. The Justice Department is appealing the decision, but it is now almost certain That this case cannot be done before the November elections. Trump and 18 co-defendants have also been charged under Georgia state law with criminal conspiracy to overturn the 2020 election. The case is still ongoing, and the legal proceedings are in various stages. But the way these cases are being worked on, it doesn't seem that because of them, Trump will be out of the election race or there will be any obstacle to his success. He may also succeed and become president. During a rally in Pennsylvania on July 13, a 20-year-old man fired a shot at Donald Trump, which missed his ear and killed a bystander. After the attack, it seemed that Trump's morale would drop, but even the attack did not dampen Trump's morale. Rather, even after the attack, Trump seems to be very active and strong. However, the Democratic candidates are not weak compared to them. It looks like the competition will be quite tough.

     However, no matter which president is elected or which party forms the government in the US, no significant improvement in US attitude or relations with Pakistan can be expected. Because America sees Pakistan, whether it is from the Democratic or Republican Party, now in the context of China and the policy of China, Afghanistan and Pakistan will be almost the same. You can infer that the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan was initiated by the Republican Party administration, but the entire process was carried out by the Democratic Party administration.

The China Wall, the Berlin Wall and now the Firewall

         In the decades-long journalistic journey, the scribe and the messenger have been in touch and now there is a firewall in front of them. The scribe lost his hand, so he was once a messenger... and now there is a firewall in front of us. We had heard the name of the China Wall and the Berlin Wall before. Simple people of the times… now our simplicity is mocked.

       Times have changed, scribes and messengers have been with us for years, now we meet firewalls. Former Member of National Assembly Nusrat Wahid has sent an open letter to Mirza Ghalib. Mirza Ghalib expresses his views on slow internet speed in his homeland. What has happened that the electronic connections between you and us have been restricted? It is heard that a fire wall has been built in front of the electronic system of social communication. The Chinese built the Great Wall of China to prevent Tatar attacks, the Germans built the Berlin Wall in the middle of the city of Berlin, the Invisible Wall, and now this is the third wall that has been built on our own hearts at our expense. Before, I was satisfied that when my health deteriorated, I would bring you in front of me and talk. Sometimes I read the text, sometimes I saw the picture. 

According to Munshi Moji Ramji:

There is an image in the mirror of the heart.
When he saw his neck bowed

       Now we have to go upstairs again and again to receive electrical signals. The goal is still not achieved, there is no reflection or sound: Where is that separation and that separation, where are the days and nights, where are the months and years? All over the country are crazy, the business running on the electronic system has collapsed, the capital has sunk, my monthly expenditure of eighteen hundred is also going in vain. In the future, I plan to save this expense and buy decorative paper, pens, lighting and books. Do the same and return to the old tradition of letter writing. Shab-i-Adina Ghalib has now been defeated. Mohalla Ballymaran, Delhi A young man from Lahore who understands digital sciences, Irfan Malik, says that "thousands of youths have stopped getting work on Fiver due to the suspension of the Internet due to the firewall. They need timely services to their clients. There is a complete failure to deliver, the country has suffered a lot due to the slowness of the internet. 

According to the poet

In love with the fresh air, O inhabitants of the city
Do not make so many holes that the wall collapses

Balochistan situation, don't be deceived. Consider!

       Nowroz Khan Zarkzai is remembered by the people of Baluchistan as 'Babu Nowrez', this gentleman was a bit of a rebel, first he fought with the British for the rights of Kalat, and when the British left, he got angry with the new rulers. When one unit was formed in 1955, Baluchistan complained of further reduction in its rights and representation, Nowroz Khan then climbed the mountains with about a thousand companions and fought with the Pakistani authorities more fiercely. This was the background. Now listen to the real story.

      After negotiations between the tribal leaders and the government of Pakistan, a ceasefire was reached in 1960. The government promised that One Unit would be disbanded and that Nowroz Khan and all his associates would be given amnesty. But Nowroz Khan did not trust these promises and refused to surrender. Now as a last effort, the government of Pakistan sent a Jirga to Nowroz Khan, the Jirga made the Qur'an a guarantor and the government of Pakistan promised amnesty. He came down from the mountain under the shadow of the Qur'an. Alas, Nowroz Khan was misrepresented, the government of Pakistan lied using the Quran as a witness.

       Nowroz Khan and 160 of his companions were tried in a military court. Seven people were hanged, including Nowroz Khan's son. Historian Dr. Shah Muhammad Marri narrates that when the son's body was brought before Nowruz Khan for the last sight, he cut off his son's mustache and sent a message to his tribe that my son's death should not be mourned but Let it be celebrated as a wedding is celebrated, for my son has died for a greater cause. Later, at the age of 95, Nowroz Khan died in prison. Nowroz Babu is considered a giant character in Balochistan today.

        Akbar Bugti was killed on August 26, 2006. A few days before his murder, Pervez Musharraf addressed the Baloch nationalists and said that this is not the seventies, you will not even know how you will be killed. has been done, and then it happened, during an operation the roof of the cave in which Akbar Bugti was sheltering collapsed, killing him and his companions. Today Akbar Bugti's name has also been included in Balochi folk songs. In April 2009, BNM president Ghulam Muhammad Baloch and two nationalist leaders, Lala Munir and Sher Muhammad, were kidnapped, and their tortured bodies were found a few days later. There are dozens of such stories, and dozens of bodies.

      There is a problem of missing persons, people disappear, fathers, sons, husbands, brothers, their number is said to be in thousands, they are sometimes heard in courts, sometimes in parliament, special commissions are also formed. The result is nothing, the result is good, the problem is confused, years and years have passed, Pakistani citizens have been kidnapped, some returned to their homes torn apart after two or four years, while thousands of people were eaten by the earth or the sky. Swallowed. Missing persons is not a 'narrative' problem, it is a human problem, it is talking about missing brothers, missing husbands, forcibly abducted sons. What is the mental structure of the families of these missing persons? What is the sole purpose of their life? We hear that Mahrang Baloch's father was also kidnapped, and then his tortured body was found. In the last 77 years, there have been five open operations in Baluchistan, in two of these operations air power was also used, and we know that collateral damage in air operations is very high, if one person is to be killed. Sometimes the entire village has to be met.

       In a heinous incident, 23 innocent Punjabis have been killed, this is not a Balochi-Punjabi conflict, it is terrorism. But when the dead bodies of your loved ones are lying in the yard, emotions run high, those who take advantage of the opportunity become mobilized. Unfortunately, some friends are beginning to see this issue as the enemy would like to see it. When Operation Searchlight was launched in East Pakistan, West Pakistan, especially Punjab, strongly supported it. Narrative had won. There were very few like Professor Waris Mir, Malik Ghulam Jilani, Nawabzada Nasrullah Khan, Habib Jalib who were loudly saying that this is not a fight between Punjabi and Bengali, it is a fight between the strong and the weak, it is a fight for fair distribution of resources. Yes, it is a battle of constitution and lawlessness. But the narrative of hate has won. This is the problem of Baluchistan too, a sinister attempt is being made to hide this problem behind the smoke screen of a hateful narrative, don't be deceived. Consider!.

The common interests of the United States and China in Pakistan?

        At the global level, it is very clear that Pakistan is important for the world in two dimensions. Its economic importance is also certain, while the security of the region is also connected with it. If an attempt is made to wall off Pakistan by taking advantage of its current weak economy, Pakistan may also be forced to enter into a defense pact to meet its strategic needs, which is sure to be a no-brainer. There will be no situation, but for the survival of national security, one has to take a bitter sip. All the regional and international forces should keep in mind that forcing Pakistan will have an impact on Pakistan, there will be other victims as well. When the former Soviet Union signed a defense agreement with India before the war of 1971 and supported India in destroying Pakistan by violating international ethics, Pakistan did nothing but sip its blood helplessly. I was able to do it, but a scar was left in my heart. Then, when the former Soviet Union came to Torkham to protect the communist-minded ruling elite in Afghanistan, Pakistan had no choice but to side with the anti-Soviet states. 

      Certainly, Pakistan did not play a role in the former Soviet Union, but to deny this fact would be to ignore the fact that Pakistan did not play an important role in it. Then the world saw that after the Afghan war, America left Pakistan and Afghanistan alone and both of them tried to heal their wounds on their own. But after leaving it alone, rather because of it, the situation in Afghanistan gave birth to a tragedy like 9/11. Therefore, the strategy of walling off Pakistan should be completely avoided even in modern times, it will not be in anyone's interest.

      I'm not just talking about insecurity as a result of isolation, but it will also have huge economic consequences. It is also a matter of concern for the United Nations that Afghanistan is still unstable and there are question marks on the government's grip there. From there, the snake of terrorism is not only spreading its trap for us, but other countries of the world are also complaining about it. The issue of Xinjiang is of great importance to China and the goals of the outlawed TTP are not only limited to Pakistan, but they are engaged in a strategy to destabilize Pakistan, China and other countries in the region from Afghanistan.

      The strategic importance of Pakistan is present in the entire Arab region from Iran. Pakistan is a foreign country that the Arab world trusts and we do not have any problems to settle with them. Pakistan's military power is also a certainty. Both Pakistan and India are nuclear powers and their intertwining is not only harmful for these two countries, but its effects are being set up on global strategic affairs as well as on global trade. If the Kashmir issue is resolved, it will not only bring relief to the people of both the countries, but the entire world will benefit from it.

      If China and the United States play their role in normalizing the mutual relations between Pakistan and India, the global trade will benefit. For example, under the patronage of the United States, a trade corridor is being established from India, which will be a trade route for goods from India to Israel and from Israel to Europe. The passage of this corridor is right in front of Pakistan's maritime boundaries and in case of conflict with Pakistan, this corridor will remain insecure at all times. Similarly, the pilot project of BRI is CPEC, which is a plan to transport Chinese products from Central Asia to Europe, Africa.

      China and India want to acquire Iranian oil and gas, the shortest route is only Pakistan, India wants access to the markets of Central Asia and Europe. Less travel than Pakistan is not possible anywhere else. Most of Pakistan's exports go to America. America and its allied countries have the most important role in foreign exchange. In the same way, China's importance in Pakistan's economy has become a certainty. When no one was investing in Pakistan, it was China that stepped forward and invested. Pakistan could not manage the Chinese investment in a proper manner and by unnecessarily developing the western route, we increased the debt burden on ourselves. But if we deal with China sensibly, these debt issues can also be resolved. If understanding is shown in diplomacy, Pakistan can take these two countries together, which is needed by both of them.